Climate Change and Agriculture

 

There is little doubt that agriculture will be one of the fields of human activity most affected by climate change. Poor rural people in developing countries will suffer profound effects, both in their capacity as agricultural producers and in other ways, which are only now beginning to be systematically researched.

 

Although effects of mean temperature changes, increase in atmospheric CO2 and mean precipitation changes will be important in the longer term, in the short term there is a growing consensus that the most important impacts of climate change, on agriculture and generally, will be felt through increased frequency and severity of extreme events, such as droughts, floods and heat waves.  The capacity for smallholders in Africa to adapt to climatic variability - through activities such as selection of appropriate crops and varieties, manipulation of planting times, and micro-management of soil and water - will crucially depend on the right supporting policies.

Our programme

The Natural Resources Institute is committed to following a multidisciplinary systems approach to assess the impact of climate change on developing country economies and to build adaptive capacity. This skill base encompasses:

• experience in interdisciplinary and integrated approaches to smallholder livelihoods in developing countries;
• specific expertise in crop protection and post-harvest agriculture, topics neglected to date in research on climate change;
• understanding of climate variability and adaptation to it, particularly with regard to drought;
• a wide network of developing country partners of various sorts, including research organizations and NGOs;
• expertise in capacity-building.

A summary of some of NRI’s recent and on-going activities is given below:

• partnership in research project on “Strengthening local agricultural innovation systems in less favored and high potential areas of Tanzania and Malawi  to adapt to the challenges and opportunities arising from climate change and variability” led by the University of Dar es Salaam;
• lead authorship on smallholder and subsistence agriculture for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change;
• desk study on the effects of climate change on infectious diseases of plants for the UK Government Foresight Programme;
• membership of DEFRA Committee on the Possible Spread of Bluetongue to the UK;
• assessment of the role of synoptic weather systems in Desert Locust movements in the Mediterranean area;
• investigation of the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Desert Locust populations in northern and western Africa.

Selected Publications

 

Chancellor, T. and Kubiriba. J. (2006)  The Effects of Climate Change on Infectious Diseases of Plants. Review for UK Government Foresight Project, Infectious Diseases: Preparing for the Future.  Publication can be viewed here.

 

Morton, J. (2006) Pastoralist coping strategies and emergency livestock market intervention. In McPeak, J.G. and  Little, P.D (eds.) Livestock Marketing in Eastern Africa: Research and Policy Challenges, ITDG Publications.

 

Nelson, V., Meadows, K., Cannon, T., Morton, J. and Martin, A. (2002) Uncertain predictions, invisible impacts, and the need to mainstream gender in climate change adaptations, Gender and Development 10 (2): 51-59. Also appearing in R Masika (ed.) (2002) Gender, Development and Climate Change, Oxfam.

 

Barton, D., Morton, J., and Hendy, C. (2001) Drought Contingency Planning for Pastoral Livelihoods. NRI Policy Series No. 15, NRI, Chatham
http://www.nri.org/publications/policyseries/PolicySeriesNo15.pdf

 

Morton, J. (ed.) (2001) Pastoralism, Drought and Planning: Lessons from Northern Kenya and Elsewhere. NRI, Chatham.
See http://www.nri.org/publications/0859545318.htm