Research by the Agroecology and Insect Behaviour Group has elucidated ecological and behavioural aspects of the biology of migrant pests (locusts, armyworm moths and red-billed quelea birds) relevant to improved forecasting and control methods, and has led to fundamental discoveries about honeybee and mosquito behaviour. Information on rainfall is a key requirement for forecasting migrant-pest outbreaks in Africa, so the team concentrated on using satellite-derived rainfall estimates with wide geographical coverage to enhance spatio-temporal forecasting models. The environmental impacts of control methods continue to be a major concern. Behavioural research has involved fieldwork on migration and orientation, and laboratory studies on mosquitoes. Theoretical studies have included work on insect movement, and the use of impulsive models for investigating integrated pest management strategies and optimal harvesting of fish.

Achievements

Bayesian and community-based modelling methods have been developed for successful prediction of African armyworm Spodoptera exempta outbreaks in eastern Africa. Models driven by rainfall estimates using cold cloud duration data have predicted where and when the red-billed quelea Quelea quelea lathamii could breed in southern Africa, with success rates of 85-99% validated against three successive seasons’ field data on the control targets (breeding colonies). The control of these and roosts of non-breeding birds by chemicals and explosives has been the subject of environmental impact assessment (EIA) studies, as has that of locusts in Madagascar. Modelling has also provided new insights on the role of rainfall in brown locust Locustana pardalina outbreaks, the migrations of desert locusts Schistocerca gregaria, and control of locust hopper bands. Radar studies have confirmed von Frisch’s Nobel Prize-winning conclusions on how honeybees Apis mellifera transmit information about the location of nectar sources, and revealed the effectiveness of pheromone-plume-locating flights of male moths over landscape scales. Other behavioural research has made fundamental discoveries on how male and female mosquitoes use auditory communication signals. Theoretical work with collaborators has shown: that displaced honeybees adopt an optimal looping Lévy-flight searching strategy when attempting to locate their hive; that IPM is more effective than conventional control; and that time of harvesting affects attainment of maximal sustainable yields in fisheries management. Linking with the Plant Diseases Group, new plant virus vector models have been developed which shed new light on epidemiological processes and provide insights for management strategies. An epidemiological model of leptospirosis infection in rodents has enabled predictions about seasonal patterns of risk to humans. Research on insecticide resistance in cotton bollworms gave rise to the 2006 ICAR Award for Outstanding Multidisciplinary Team Research. The Group initiated and is a major contributor to the Collaboration for Insect Management on Brassicas in Asia and Africa (CIMBAA), a unique international, public-private research partnership to develop and introduce brassica crops genetically-engineered for insect resistance. Molecular genetic studies of populations of the pool frog, endangered in the UK, have demonstrated that this species is native, leading to its reintroduction.

Future Plans

Major grants from the EC in Southern Africa are supporting continuing research on EIA of quelea and on armyworm forecasting and control . BBSRC funding will support further research on the role of acoustics in mosquito behaviour . Future plans include: developing mass-trapping methods for quelea to provide a cheap protein source; examining acoustic behaviour in malaria vectors; and developing meta-population models to forecast locust outbreaks.

Staff

Prof Bob Cheke
Jerry Cooper
Hans Dobson
Dr Gay Gibson
Dr Jon Holt
Prof John Humphreys
Dr Ivor Evans
Dr Don Reynolds

Recent Publications

Caldow R. W. G., Stillman, R. A., Sarah E.A. Le V. dit Durell, Andrew D. West, Selwyn McGrorty,John D Goss-Custard, Philippa J Wood and John Humphreys (2007). Benefits to shore birds from invasion of non-native shellfish. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 274 1449-1445

Chapman, J.W., Reynolds, D.R., Brooks, S.J., Smith, A.D. & Woiwod, I.P. (2006) Seasonal variation in the migration strategies of the green lacewing Chrysoperla carnea species complex. Ecological Entomology 31: 378-388.

Cheke, R. A. Venn, J. F. & Jones, P. J. (2007) Forecasting suitable breeding conditions for the Red-billed Quelea Quelea quelea in southern Africa. Journal of Applied Ecology. (in press).

Cheke, R.A. (2007) African Barred Owlet Glaucidium capense new to Togo. Malimbus. (submitted).

Cooper, J. and Dobson, H. (2007). The benefits of pesticides to mankind and the environment. Crop Protection 26: 1337-1348.

Durrant, K. L., Reed, J. L., Jones, P. J., Dallimer, M., Cheke, R. A., McWilliam, A. N. & Fleischer, R. C. (2007) Variation in haematozoan parasitism at local and landscape levels in the Red-billed Quelea. Journal of Avian Biology (in press).

Holt, J. & Cooper, J. (2006) A model to compare the suitability of locust hopper targets for control by insecticide barriers. Ecological Modelling 195: 273-280.

Holt, J. (2006) Score averaging for alien species risk assessment: A probabilistic alternative. Journal of Environmental Management 81: 58-62.

Holt, J. (2007) A method to quantify uncertainty in quarantine pest and invasive species risk assessment. Journal of Environmental Management (in press).

Holt, J., Black, R & Roshan Abdalla (2006) A rigorous yet simple quantitative risk assessment method for quarantine pests and non-native organisms. Annals of Applied Biology 149: 167-173.

Holt, J., Davis, S. & Leirs H. (2006) A model of Leptosirosis infection in an African rodent. Acta Tropica 99: 218-225.

Holt, J., Mushobozi, W., Day, R.K., Knight, J.D., Kimani, M., Njuki, J. & Musebe, R. (2006). A simple Baysian network to interpret the accuracy of armyworm outbreak forecasts. Annals of Applied Biology 148: 141-146.

Humphreys J., Caldow R.W.G., McGrorty S., West A. D. and Jensen A. C. (2007). Population dynamics of naturalised Manila clams Ruditapes philippinarum in British coastal waters. Marine Biology

Jones, P. J., Cheke, R. A. & Bousefield, N. (2007) Flexibility in the timing of post-nuptial moult among red-billed queleas Quelea quelea in relation to timing of breeding in Botswana. Ostrich (in press).

Reynolds, A.M., Reynolds, D.R., Smith, A.D., Svensson, G.P. & Löfstedt, C. (2007) Appetitive flight patterns of male Agrotis segetum moths over landscape scales. Journal of Theoretical Biology (in press, doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2006.10.007 )

Reynolds, A.M., Smith, A.D., Menzel, R, Greggers, U., Reynolds, D.R. & Riley, J.R. (2007) Displaced honeybees perform optimal scale-free search flights. Ecology (in press)

Reynolds, D.R., Chapman, J.W. & Harrington, R. (2006) The migration of insect vectors of plant and animal viruses. Advances in Virus Research 67: 453-517.

Tang, S. & Cheke, R.A. (2007) Models for implementing IPM strategies and their biological implications. Ecological Modelling (in press).

Tang, S., Xiao, Y. & Cheke, R.A. (2007) Multiple attractors of host-parasitoid models with IPM strategies: eradication, persistence and outbreak. Theoretical Population Biology (in press).

Tratalos, J., Cheke , R. A., Healey, R. & Stenseth, N.-C. (2007) Towards forecasting desert locust plagues using ARIMA modelling, rainfall and gridded monthly locust data. Population Ecology (in press).

Wood, C.R., Chapman, J.W., Reynolds, D.R., Barlow, J.F., Smith, A.D. & Woiwod, I.P. (2006) The influence of the atmospheric boundary layer on nocturnal layers of moths migrating over southern Britain. International Journal of Biometeorology 50: 193-204.